Thermal Fatigue Life Prediction of Solder Joints in Avionics by Surrogate Modeling – a Contribution to Physics of Failure in Reliability Prediction

Manufacturers of aerospace, defense, and high performance (ADHP) equipment are currently facing multiple challenges related to the reliability of electronic systems. The continuing reduction in size of electronic components combined with increasing clock frequencies and greater functionality, results in increased power density. As an effect, controlling the temperature of electronic components is central in electronic product development in order to maintain and potentially improve the reliability of the equipment. Simultaneously, the transition to lead-free electronic equipment will most probably propagate also to the ADHP industry. Compared to well-proven tin-lead solder, the knowledge about field operation reliability of lead-free solders is still limited, as well as the availability of damage evaluation models validated for field temperature conditions. Hence, the need to fill in several knowledge gaps related to reliability and reliability prediction of lead-free solder alloys is emphasized. Having perceived increasing problems experienced in the reliability of fielded equipment, the ADHP industry has suggested inclusion of physics-of-failure (PoF) in reliability prediction of electronics as one potential measure to improve the reliability of the electronic systems. This thesis aims to contribute to the development of reliable ADHP systems, with the main focus on electronic equipment for the aerospace industry. In order to accomplish this, the thesis provides design guidelines for power distribution on a double-sided printed circuit board assembly (PBA) as a measure to improve the thermal performance without increasing the weight of the system, and a novel, computationally efficient method for PoF-based evaluation of damage accumulation in solder joints in harsh, non-cyclic field operation temperature environments. Thermal fatigue failure mechanisms and state-of-the-art thermal design and design tools are presented, with focus on the requirements that may arise from avionic use, such as low weight, high reliability, and ability to sustain functional during high vibration levels and high g-forces. Paper I, II, and III describes an in-depth investigation that has been performed utilizing advanced thermal modeling of power distribution on a double-sided PBA as a measure to improve the thermal performance of electronic modules. Paper IV contributes to increasing the accuracy of thermal fatigue life prediction in solder joints, by employing existing analytical models for predicting thermal fatigue life, but enhancing the prediction result by incorporating advanced thermal analysis in the procedure. Papers V and VI suggest and elaborate on a computational method that utilizes surrogate stress and strain modeling of a solder joint, to quickly evaluate the damage accumulated in a …